Workplace automation – some links

On November 3, I had posted a small extract from a long article in ‘New Yorker’ on workplace automation. I am repeating it here.

This article on Fanuc, the Japanese robots manufacturer is equally important read.

Robots routinely crash – this is encouraging in a curious sort of way.

A socially aware techie?!:

Subbarao Kambhampati, president of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, said that although technology often benefited society, it did not always do so equitably. “Recent technological advances have been leading to a lot more concentration of wealth,” he said. “I certainly do worry about the effects of AI technologies on wealth concentration and inequality, and how to make the benefits more inclusive.” [Link]

The Guardian on the Alphabet’s ‘Urban Takeover’. This is unlikely to be socially beneficial.

The first time a prominent commentator has dared question the mindless expansion of the frontiers of technology. Lant Pritchett’s piece in ‘Ideas for India’ is worth a read. (ht: Amol Agrawal’s Mostly Economics).

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Humans and Robots

In southern Denmark, the regional government hired a chief robotics officer, Poul Martin Møller, to help integrate more robots into the public sector, largely as a money-saving measure. He decided that the Danish hospital system, which was under pressure to reduce costs, could benefit from robotic orderlies. There were few medical-oriented robots on the market, though, so Møller and his team took small, mobile robots with movable arms, designed for use in warehouses, and refashioned them, so that they could carry supplies to doctors and nurses. The machines worked well, scuttling through surgery wings and psych wards like helpful crabs, never complaining or taking cigarette breaks. But Møller wasn’t prepared for the reaction of the hospital staff, who recognized their mechanical colleagues as potential replacements, and tried to sabotage them. Fecal matter and urine were left in charging stations. [Link]

It is a fairly long article but worth a read.

Bullet train and rail safety

About ten days ago, the Business Standard newspaper carried a brief story featuring four tweets by Mr. P. Chidambaram, the former Finance Minister, on the need for railway safetey and how money spent on bullet trains should be spent on railway safety. On the face of it, it is unexceptionable. But, it is unfortunate.

But, the truth is, as stated many a time in this blog, that the soft loan – very, very low interest rate for a long term – that is being extended by Japan is only for this project. The Government of India is not diverting funds for this. There will be some money that the Indian Government has to put in. But, it is a very small sum.

Check this out from the ‘Hindustan Times’:

Funding

To fund the ambitious Rs 1,10,000-crore project, a loan of Rs 88,000 crore will be taken from Japan. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will fund it at a low rate of interest of 0.1% per annum. This loan has to be repaid to Japan in 50 years, with 15 years grace period. [Link]

Ajit Ranade had written cogently and eloquently on why the project makes sense. He wishes the project Godspeed. He is quite right on this one. The project has much to commend for itself, inclding Rail Safety. Ranade writes [emphasis mine]:

The MAHSR is one of the crown jewels in the robust Indo-Japan relationship. Its concessional funding of $15 billion, at an interest rate of 0.1 per cent, is from Japan International Cooperation Agency, to be repaid over 50 years after an initial 15-year moratorium. This funding is specifically earmarked for MAHSR and is not fungible.

Japan is an acknowledged world leader in high-speed rail technology, whose focus is on reliability and safety. Their approach is integrating transport and development, not merely to achieve high-speed connection.

The project envisages technology and skill transfer, indigenous manufacturing and employment. Don’t forget that Japan had a major role to play in India becoming a hub of small-car manufacturing in the world. That’s the story of Maruti Suzuki.

Japan also was instrumental in the setting up of Delhi Metro. It may be useful to note that the Tokyo metro system is one of the world’s most sophisticated, with 158 lines criss-crossing 2,200 stations serving 40 million passenger rides daily. All this with a near-zero accident rate. Hence the safety aspect of MAHSR has the Shinkansen mindset and approach behind it.

Just as the Indian Space Research Organisation inspires, so would the Bullet Train project, both on safety and on technological excellence and even punctuality. Certain discontinuous opportunistic leapfrogging is necessary from time to time. That is what this project would do.

As for safety in Indian Railways, read what Sunil Jain wrote in ‘Financial Express’ after the Elphinstone Road tragedy [Emphasis mine]:

And Suresh Prabhu lost his job as Railway minister following the Kalinga-Utkal Express derailment – while the poor man had done well to focus on eliminating unmanned railway crossings where 60% of fatalities used to occur in the past, when push came to shove, he hadn’t managed to stop the derailments. But how could he? In 2012, the Anil Kakodkar panel said India needed Rs 1 lakh crore for fixing safety and said it wasn’t safe to use the 52kg/m tracks or the 43,000 ICF coaches – this got highlighted in all the recent accidents – but the Railways is too broke, so we fix what we can (albeit at a faster pace under Prabhu) and leave the rest to God.

As a former Finance Minister, Mr. Chidambaram should come out in support of the Delhi Metro fare hike and oppose the politically motivated resistance to it. See here.

On reading this blog post, my friend shared this news-story from February 2012 with me. All parties oppose what they propose! Neither the Congress nor the BJP is an exception.

Automation and Greg Ip

I could not stop thinking if Greg Ip connected what ​Jon Hilsenrath wrote in ​July 2016 and this piece that he had written and saw the linkages, if any. Well, there is a link.

How is it possible to document the social and economic ills as well as he did in June 2016 and not see the connection between technology and that?
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How can one deliberately stay at the aggregate level and not talk about who wins and who loses and whether that would have social or economic consequences or both?

I think the piece by Jon Hilsenrath of July 2016 is freely accessible. Greg Ip’s piece could be behind a paywall. If so, apologies.

When I shared this story and the thoughts above, my batch-mate, Subramanian Sharma sent me this riveting and frightening story. The event happened in 2008 but the story was written in May 2017. I could access it. So, I think you should be able to, too.

Localisation vs. Globalisation

An interesting article (could be behind a paywall) from Gillian Tett in the FT on how executives had already been turning away from globalisation, well before Donald Trump arrived at the White House. It is not too hard to fathom the reasons: they went for cost savings. They had dried up. So, they return. Technology has also made local manufacturing competitive, perhaps. I do not know. I am guessing. More interesting for me was the question of what it meant for the balance between capital and labour.

Globalisation – whether jobs went or work went overseas – expanded the global supply of labour. That, in part, contributed to the withering of labour bargaining power in the West and kept a lid on wage growth. This was true from the Eighties and more so in the new millennium, after the entry of China into the WTO in 2001.

Now, the big question is if the ‘reversal’ of the trend would restore the balance between capital and labour. If one may hazard a guess, it does not seem like it because this reversal is being driven by the same profit consideration too that drove globalisation.

Nothing wrong about the motivation at all except that the fruits of such business decisions were shared in blatantly lopsided fashion. Now, technology – robotics and AI – might end up postponing (or, denying) the reversal of the capital vs. labour imbalance that began in the 1980s.

One thought that the global crisis of 2008 would force a re-examination of many undesirable trends that had taken roots in the previous quarter century: leveraging, financialisation, executive compensation and the erosion of social compacts of business. That has not happened yet. One hopes (in vain) read some good news from Gillian Tett on these.

STCMA – 4.6.2017

A long article analysing various scenarios as to how demand for crude oil would evolve. All of them point to the downside from the projected demand. Well written article. Easy to follow.

A very good story on China’ ghost collaterals. Everyone fakes sincerity and everything is normal. It is one big illusion.The IFC comment that it was an isolated case is pure delight.

Millennials and home ownership in America. A distant dream. With their savings, they can afford dogs, though.

A German law professor wants Germany not to have any association with ECB’s Quantitative Easing programme any more. It is scheduled to run up to 2018.

More robots; fewer jobs – the workers appear screwed either way, robots or no robots. Post-2008, it was supposed to be different. Or so we thought.

Yuval Harari paints it stark: ‘​​Are we about to witness the most unequal societies in history?’

Rural America is the new inner city. Poignant reading.

Shankkar Aiyar on the riveting and unending saga of 100 worst districts in India. Riveting, if depressing reading.

Stuff that caught my attention – STCMA 28.5.2017

On its maiden run, Tejas Express finds headphones missing, seats dirty and scratches on TV screens. Should we be pessimistic on India because of its governments and politicians or because of the people? I would say the latter.

Shankkar Aiyar laments the lack of a constructive, credible and serious political opposition to the NDA government. The question is did we ever have it, in our polity?

Shankkar Aiyar also rues the missed opportunity of the ‘Smart Cities’ programme. He is right.

One nation – one ghee dosa – one price: Praveen Chakravarty on the extremely bad idea of the government’s price gouging authority provision in the new GST Bill. True that private sector might not pass on savings. But, his example shows how intrusive an authority to check that, can become. One hopes it is a case of bark rather than bite.

I liked this piece by Pradeep Mehta of CUTS International on NITI Aayog’s three-year action plan.

Appears more of an excuse than a legitimate justification to sideline Paul Romer (ht: Amol Agrawal).

Abhijit Banerje’s piece in ‘Indian Express’ could have been worse.

This piece by Yuval Harari on how the world would cope with technological progress that would render them unemployed is either too subtle for me or it is too frivolous. Perhaps, it is a parody on progress? If so, I like it. (ht Ravikumar from Washington, DC).

This MINT Edit spotlights the speed with which we reconcile to mediocrity and second and third best worlds. It deals with the issue of how the proposed Goods & Services Tax (GST) in India on Services is too complicated.

From the man of the mangled metaphors, this article, superficial as it is, is well worth a read because he has done what good journalists are supposed to do – go and verify things for oneself.

Ramesh Ponnuru on the Liberal blind spots. Short but effective.

There are times one should be happy that articles are behind paywalls and cannot be accessed. Saves time and much else.

Ajit Ranade pays tributes to a silent tree lover who passed away too young. Nice to remember and reflect.