Nikkei Asia Review had some excellent articles on Xi Jinping’s political troubles this summer. He is not executing the trade war well. All the media pundits who ‘egged him on’ cannot really help. The simple math that Trump relied on – I import more from you than you import from me and therefore, I can hurt you more with my tariffs – seems to have eluded many complicated economists and pundits. The summer chastisement of Xi by party elders therefore makes for interesting read. You can read them here, here and here.
This captures a lot of things:
The revised regulations stipulate the importance of “resolutely upholding the core status of General Secretary Xi in the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee and the entire Party.” This sentence holds significant meaning and marks a step forward for Xi. Earlier, the party had only talked about “resolutely upholding the Central Committee with Xi Jinping at the core.” The revised disciplinary regulations strengthen the wording regarding “core,” giving the impression that Xi, not the party’s collective leadership, is being highlighted. Now anyone who makes light of Xi faces punitive action. [Link]
South China Morning Post has a story on how it is not just trade but even Chinese investments that are now threatened because the rest of the world has wisened up.
Some interesting and unresolved long-term dilemmas crop up in the tension between European Union and Hungary. The European Parliament has censured Hungary. The censure motion got the required two-thirds majority. But, does it smack of hypocrisy and inconsistency? Hungarian people had voted him back to office just few months ago with a bigger mandate. He is pursuing policies that he had done before and which the voters have approved. So, is the European Parliament censuring him for being faithful to his people’s preferences?
Interestingly, heard a talk by Dr. S. Jaishankar in Singapore last afternoon. He was India’s foreign secretary. He said that the alliance between Italian Deputy PM Matteo Salvini and Orban of Hungary was the talking point of his meetings in Europe two weeks ago.
A comprehensive survey of people’s attitudes towards public institutions like military, parliament, financial institutions and the media, towards immigrants, etc., was published by Pew just two months ago. Europe is conflicted. For example, majority in many countries say that immigrants contribute to economy. But, the vote for the question of whether immigrants increase terror risk runs very close. Germany, in fact, has a net positive score. That is, the proportion that says immigrants increase terror risk exceeds those that say that immigrants don’t increase terror risk by 9 percentage points, followed by 4% points in Italy. Surprisingly, of the other countries, Sweden has the lowest negative differential: -6%.
On immigration, one has to interpret positive sentiments with a bit of scepticism. Respondents want to project themselves as open-minded. But, the truth is that negative sentiments and scepticism run deeper. The proof of the pudding is in the way the vote has swung in Sweden and in the rising popularity of AfD in Germany. No wonder Europe experienced a heat wave this summer.
Attitudes towards the European Union’s dominance in national policy discourse – more power should be returned to national governments – is uniformly negative. Indeed, 73% in the UK feel that more power should be returned to national governments. Even more than in Italy. Those who want to put Brexit to a second vote should note.
Financial Institutions are not trusted (either not at all or not too much) by a substantial majority in Italy, Spain and France. It is 46% in Germany and in the UK. But, distrust of media is uniformly high in all countries (not trusted at all or somewhat not trusted) with the exception of the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany. In the trust quotient, media scores lower than financial institutions! That is some achievement.
The lesson is that the so-called centrist and mainstream politicians and elites are failing in walking the fine line between acknowledging as real people’s perceptions and grievances and in appearing to be legitimising extremist political parties. The challenge lies in doing the former without doing the latter. It takes a lot of hard work, deft communication and repetitive messaging along with tangible measures on the law and order front, etc. It is hard work and, out of laziness, many mainstream politicians are taking the easy out: lumping all sentiments as xenophobia. So, they turn it into a lose-lose situation. They lose their people and they lose to their more extreme alternatives.