Prasanna Viswanathan of Swarajya had shared a good article from Economic & Political Weekly (December 30, 2017) on the impact of demonetisation in rural Tamil Nadu. It was a survey based article. What came out well was the fact that people found a way around the cash ban and yet stuck to cash. That came out well. The second thing is that informal networks got strengthened. The authors strangely note that as a failure of the demonetisation exercise. Far from it. The authors of the demonetisation exercise in the government did not wish to disturb social networks in India!
The other thing that came out – the authors mention it twice – is that there was widespread support for demonetisation. That makes us wonder if the inconveniences and difficulties faced by the public are exaggerated by those who were not well disposed towards the government. If it had caused huge hardship to people, the measure could not have remained popular for too long.
The paper is ‘Insights on demonetisation from rural Tamil Nadu’ – understanding social networks and social protection, Economic and Political Weekly, December 30, 2017, Volume 52.
If the authors of the article were not pre-disposed towards judging the demonetisation as a failure, it would have made for a scholarly article. Pre-disposition makes scholars look silly.
You do not have to look far from this FT article by Larry Summers on the American economy for a classic example of pre-disposition or prejudice making for poor scholarship. If my students had written it, they would have scored very low marks indeed. Just one example: for America, a weak currency is not a reflection of its economic weakness at all. Mr. Summers knows it well but mentions it all the same as reflecting economic fragility because he cannot get himself to say something good about the U.S. economy under President Trump.
While on the subject of the U.S. economy, it was amusing to read that President Obama was claiming credit for the improved performance of the economy in 2017. Well, debatable but would he then take the blame for its sluggishness up to 2016 in almost all parameters of the economy?
Coming back to pre-dispositions, we had one on the other side – this time from Surjit Bhalla. He wrote in ‘Indian Express’ that tax buoyancy had picked up in the current financial year 2017-18, despite the demonetisation. Well, he says, it was because of the demonetisation’s impact on black money that tax buoyancy (more like elasticity- % change in tax collection for a % change in GDP) picked up.
This is problematic. GDP growth slowed down in the first three quarters following demonetisation. That does not establish causality but it is reasonable to think that demonetisation had at least a partial impact on economic growth. If, on top of the growth slowdown, there was increased tax collection, then one has to wonder if it was a good or bad thing. Vigorous tax collection in the middle of an economic growth slowdown might have aggravated the slowdown.
So, I am not sure if improved tax buoyancy in the context of an economic growth slowdown that might possibly have been aggravated by demonetisation (if not caused by it) is cause for celebration.