It all started with Ms. Clinton telling Ms. Amanpour that had the election been held on Oct. 27, she would have been President now. See the story and her own remarks here. Nate Silver, the pollster turned biased analyst, has written a longish post here on why FBI Director Comey’s letter to the Congress on Oct. 28 that he was re-opening investigation into Hillary Clinton emails mattered. There is no mention of the counterfactual. According to some accounts, Comey actually tried to manage the process for her because sections of New York Police Department (or, was it New York FBI?) were ready to go public with incriminating evidence in the same matter or in the matter of Clinton Foundation. See this story and this story, for example. In other words, worse could have happened. That is why Comey ‘took charge’ himself to help her, announced an investigation and a few days later, declared the matter closed.
But, none of these details matter. They are pesky and troublesome, if you had already made up your mind and simply want confirmations. They are so full of certitude that they had figured out the voters, the electorate and that they could not have been wrong. Only a conspiracy could have made them look foolish by making their favourite candidate lose the elections.
Nor does it bother them that their predictions of an imminent collapse in asset markets because of Mr. Trump having become the President have not borne fruit. Nor does it make them reflect when they see news that small businesses (National Federation of Independent Businesses) are feeling more confident than ever:
A seasonally adjusted net 16 percent plan to create new jobs, up 1 point and a very strong reading. Not seasonally adjusted, 27 percent plan to increase employment at their firm (up 3 points), and 3 percent plan reductions (unchanged). – Link.
The NFIB Monthly Sentiment report was released on May 4.
Investors are actually putting money into U.S. equity mutual funds since November 2016. It has happened only all too rarely in the last two years. The turnaround from November is remarkable. See here.
This Bloomberg story challenges the convenient narrative that Ms. Clinton had helped resurrect that Comey’s letter tipped the scales against her. In an interview with WSJ recently, Professor Jonathan Haidt said that ‘le deplorables’ remark of Ms. Clinton would be the most fateful two words in American political history. Sorry, he said, ‘human history’:
He offers this real-world example: “I think that the ‘deplorables’ comment could well have changed the course of human history.” [Link]
It is a different matter altogether if President Trump would deliver or not. But, to blame the defeat on Comey is to be wilfully negligent and daft. To learn nothing is to repudiate the theory of human rationality.