I came across this piece in VoxEU thanks to a tweet by good friend Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Very important conclusion with which many are in denial, simply because they cannot contemplate being on the same side of the fence as the American President:
The revival of nationalism in Western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries or not.
The same authors had done work on Brexit earlier and had reached a similar conclusion. The reference is available in the link above. [That is why this blogger took no cognisance of Mr. Tony Blair’s pathetic and self-serving recent intervention on Brexit.]
This very closely follows the work of Schott and Pierce with respect to U.S. manufacturing employment. No wonder Xi batted for globalisation in Davos!
Very interestingly and very unsurprisingly, I had read a summary of the book, ‘China: the gathering threat’ by Constantine Menges. He died in 2004. It is published by http://www.mustreadsummaries.com
He had written something there that echoes what Brad wrote and which I had blogged on, here, that China imported far less than was expected when China joined the WTO.
However, China usually ends up conceding far less than it receives in return for its normalized relationship with the United States.
What does this mean for India? India does not have the muscle to negotiate bilateral and regional trade deals with bigger powers. Even if it has, it does not know how to use them.
So, India has to bat for a global trading system. What I am not sure though is if it should do so with China or to counter China!