The future of the Euro and the Yuan

Three days of ‘dawn to desk’ (and longer) deliberations with a company (I am on their Board of Directors) in Singapore have left me feeling like I have to scramble this weekend to catch up. Not that I have forgotten any pending deadline. But, still….

A good friend sent me this link. This is an article from October of last year. A distinguished Italian academic tears into the Eurozone and wants Italy to leave the Eurozone.

Perhaps, it makes sense to read this article, right after that. Martin Schulz is the chosen challenger by Social Democrats against Angela Merkel. The article notes that his candidature makes things interesting in the race. I believe, going by law of averages and historical precedence from other nations, Ms. Merkel will lose decisively. Not to mention how Germans feel about the immigration challenge from accepting too many refugees in too short a time. Mainstream media has not made us any wiser and better informed on that. Not that it has on other matters.

Ashley Tellis has an article on Indo-American relations in the NBR Round-Table on US-Asia relations at a time of transition. Have not read it yet.

Christine Fair has a report on Pakistan’s strategic culture (Dec. 2016) for the National Bureau of Asian Research. Yet to read it.

This piece by David Dollar on China’s currency management challenges is a good read for a superficial understanding of the problem.

Michael Pettis’ review article from Jan. 6 of a long FT article on China’s economic prospects. I have not read the original yet but have read Michael Pettis’ article. Worth a read. Whether China is getting its debt under control or not (it is not) is evident from the growth numbers of Total Social Financing for 2016. Goldman Sachs think that the official reported growth rate of total credit understates the true number. It puts the true growth number at 20% per annum.

This is an important article on the Dodd-Frank financial sector regulation being rolled back under President Trump. I was concerned about it. I have always held that regulation of the financial sector is different from the real economy. The latter requires a lighter tough than the former. The former is inherently unstable and is pro-cyclical. Hence, regulation needed. I was concerned that Trump was going to dismantle it. Not quite, says the article. I am happy.

Art Cashin finds the U.S. stock market rally discomforting. I feel more strongly than that.



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