In this piece published some two months ago, Harish Damodaran states that the Ministry of Agriculture in India has been overstating milk, soya bean and wheat production, the last of which has even led to the imposition of a 25% duty on imports.

the only reason for it is the Agriculture Ministry maintaining that the country harvested a bumper crop of 94 mt-plus even under poor soil moisture conditions, aggravated by high temperatures and absence of winter rains

Agriculture Ministry’s estimates of wheat production, which, for 2015-16, has been pegged at 94.04 mt, as against the previous year’s 86.53 mt…. The US Department of Agriculture has reckoned India’s wheat crop at 88 mt, with the private trade putting it even lower at 85-86 mt.

The same goes for soya bean, where Krishi Bhawan’s output estimate of 8.92 mt is much more than the USDA’s 7.38 mt and the Soya bean Processors’ Association of India’s 6.93 mt


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