What does 2016 hold for the world?

Students of history have, perhaps, never had it so good. What they are witnessing could be unprecedented:
  • China implodes economically and yet places surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea
  • Crude oil collapses – Saudi Arabia totters – and Iran sanctions are lifted
  • America pursues detente with Iran and normalises ties with Cuba and Vietnam
  • America finalises a Trans-Pacific Partnership and excludes China
  • Russia’s dispute with Turkey escalates and simmers;
  • US and Russia battle over Syria on whether Assad should stay or leave; Turkey is in the picture and so are Iran and Saudi Arabia
  • Guardians of money push interest rates to below zero! Who had heard of negative interest rates?
  • Europe has never left its economic crisis behind and a clash of civilisation is brewing
  • There is a US Presidential Election in 2016

But, the sad truth is that this is not theatre but real and the ending need not be a happy one. That is what I wrote in ‘Swarajya’ in a long-form article as to why we should be afraid of 2016. A reader trashed it calling it an ‘Idiotic Doomsday Prediction’.

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4 thoughts on “What does 2016 hold for the world?

  1. Yes, did read your article in Swarajya. I can understand that you would want to temper down thought : ) wide, yes but I much much more pessimistic.

    If you use the framework like the kind that Robert Shiller does in Irrational Exuberance, would think that response to any “issue” today is influenced by many more things than before. So events which would dissipate and not set up a new entire chain of follow on events / responses, are now more important.

    So when a shooting happens in the US, the coverage and shrill political dialogue that follows sets the stage for more such unfortunate incidents. So does that coverage of French shootings, the cartoons before that. Media is now a monster with only objective to maximise money and personal importance of reporters / journalists.

    Where does this leave us? More violence until it begins to wear itself out?

    People do not understand that when you don’t let small recessions happen to purge the excesses of recent past, you set the stage for a larger forest fire. The smart economists have played havoc with the world and have caused collossal misallocation of capital.

    No place to hide really … China is literally on a self destruct mode … And is now a global exporter of deflation and aided by decline in oil and to some extent other commodities.

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  2. Pretty sanguine and not fearful enough. Misjudgements in N Korea and in the China Sea. A coup in the Middle East and riots in the US and Europe.

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