COWEN: What’s a country right now investors are underrating and a country they’re overrating in today’s world, given your understanding.
RODRIK: Brazil, I think, is deeply underrated right now. I think that when you look at what’s happening, on the one hand, in Brazil it shocks you that there is all this widespread corruption with Petrobras that seems to go all the way up.
On the other hand, when you look at how they’re dealing with this situation it’s incredibly impressive. It’s something that even in an advanced country you wouldn’t think would happen, that there you have these prosecutors and judges who are actually following the rule of the law.
COWEN: Real accountability.
RODRIK: Real accountability. This is not being used to settle political scores in the way that it would happen anywhere, if it was happening at all.
COWEN: They have industrial policies.
RODRIK: Their industrial policy isn’t great but they at least are trying to do something about it. That’s a somewhat separate issue.
To me, when I look at Brazil, they’re demonstrating a political maturity in the way that their system operates that is decades ahead of even the advanced industrial countries. I think the fact that they’re dealing with this and are going to have it behind them five years from now, eventually, it’s going to put them . . . I would put in the long play for Brazil.
When I look at Brazil, they’re demonstrating a political maturity in the way that their system operates that is decades ahead of even the advanced industrial countries.
RODRIK: I think India, because I think the kind of growth that India has had, I don’t think it’s sustainable. Partly going back to our earlier discussion about premature deindustrialization. I think they have these plans to significantly strengthen their manufacturing base. I just don’t see it happening.
I think India can grow at 4, 5 percent per year on a sustainable basis. I don’t think it’s going to be 8 or 9 percent. When this sinks in, I think there’s going to be a negative overreaction, would be my fear.
Dani Rodrik thinks that Brazil is under-rated and India is over-rated. I say Amen to that. Does not that he and I cannot be wrong in the future. It is as things stand today. The reason is that whether India is prematurely industrialising or not, it is prematurely celebrating always.