Solid Payrolls

This is not a full comment on the US non-farm monthly payroll report for May released on Friday. On most counts, it seems like a solid report. Clearly, the y/y change in average hourly earnings is steadily picking up. That is one sign of ensuing labour market tightness. But, I am not going to spend time analysing it.What I was struck by was chart 5 in this nice graphic presentation on the employment report. The chart shows that it took until October 2011 for full-time employment to start to pick up in the US. The economic recession officially ended in June 2009. It reinforces, if it were needed, the well-known point that employment is a lagging indicator – both ways.

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