Trade trends down

Lord Adair Turner makes sophisticated arguments – as one would expect from him – on why slower international trade growth is happening, why it is inevitable, why it is not a disaster for global growth, per se and yet, why it means more domestic demand heavy-lifting for countries like China than it was for other East Asian nations that preceded it to prosperity:

But while the potential global benefits of trade liberalization have declined, reduced trade intensity might still impede economic development in some countries. Only a handful of economies over the last 60 years have fully caught up to advanced-economy living standards, and all relied on export-led growth to drive productivity and job creation in manufacturing. Relying solely on that model will be more difficult in the future. China is so big that it must develop domestic drivers of growth at an earlier stage of development than did Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea; as a result, its exports will inevitably decline (relative to GDP).


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