Baseline scenario

Professor Dani Rodrik has a lovely (?!) piece in ‘Project Syndicate’ on ‘The end of the world as we know it’. I only have two quibbles with it:

(1) He gives the benefit of doubt to India and Brazil because they are two countries with low public debt, have democratic institutions and limited dependence on exports and capital flows. The last point is debatable, esp. for India. But, we shall let that pass.

The main objection to his giving a relatively free pass to India comes from this: he vastly underestimates India’s ability to score self-goals. Second, if some one thought India had better prospects than China, India would make sure that they are proven wrong.

(2) The other quibble I have with his column is that he thinks that his scenario is remote. For me, it comes close to being a baseline scenario.

Whether you agree with him or not, do not miss it.

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