In my first column for MINT for 2019, I dealt with the issue of the Federal Reserve backtracking on its rate hike trajectory. Methinks it is sustained pressures from ‘financial market types’ that led the Fed chairman to cave in. I don’t buy the argument that he is tightening on two fronts: federal funds rate and quantitative tightening. So what? One acts through the banking channel (from the overnight lending rate to bank loan rates) and one acts through the capital markets channel – through the yield curve. All the rates, across the yield cuve, were depressed extraordinarily – in magnitude and for an inordinately long time. So what if all points in the yield cuve were rising? Financial conditions still remained accommodative.
This was the burden of my column. I was not impressed with the arguments of Stanley Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh nor was I impressed with the arguments of John Mauldin. My friend Gulzar Natarajan had urged me to read his ‘Thoughts from the Frontline’. I read the last four of them last evening. You can read two of them – pertaining to the discussion of Fed monetary policy – here and here.
Nor did Gavyn Davies impress me with his arguments. So what if the Federal Reserve were triggering an economic recession? Recessions must be welcomed after excesses have built up in so many areas – from corporate debt to leveraged loans to market concentration in tech firms
‘Wrath of the financial markets’ that Viral Acharya (RBI Deputy Governor) invoked in a speech in October is felt more by central bankers than governments and that too not in public interest but in self-interest of the financial community.
Dean Baker has a list of ‘facts’ or resolutions to improve debates on economic policy in 2019. Item no. 6 is about finance. His list is about the ‘facts’ that are often obscured in economic policy debates:
6) A large financial sector is a drain on the economy
The financial sector plays an important role in a modern economy. It allocates capital from savers to those who wish to borrow. A poorly functioning financial sector is a drag on growth. The same is true of a bloated financial sector.
The financial industry is an intermediate sector, like trucking. This means that it does not directly provide benefits to households, like a housing, health care, or education. For this reason, we should want a financial sector that is as small as possible for carrying through its function, just as we would want the trucking sector to be as small as possible to deliver the goods in a timely manner.
Over the last four decades the narrow financial sector (securities and commodity trading and investment banking) has more than quadrupled as a share of the economy. It would be difficult to argue that capital is being better allocated or that savings are more secure today than 40 years ago.
This means we have little to show for this enormous expansion of the financial sector. It would be comparable to seeing the size of the trucking sector quadruple with nothing to show in the form of faster deliveries or reduced wastage. Finance is of course also the source of many of the highest incomes in the economy.
These facts make for a strong case for measures that reduce the size of the sector, like financial transactions taxes, reduced opportunities for tax gaming, and increased openness in pension fund and endowment contracts. In any case, it is important to recognize that a big financial sector (as in Wall Street) is bad for the economy, not the sort of thing that we should be proud of.
Reducing the size of the financial sector will also mean that its influence on monetary policy will come down. About time.